Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week, a new month, and a new quarter with a strong upward move above $28,000.
The largest cryptocurrency welcomes “Uptober” in style with its best weekly close since mid-August – what lies ahead next?
After Bitcoin’s mixed price action in September, market participants were prepared for a potentially volatile monthly close, but in the end, it ended in bulls’ favor.
Since October often sees tangible gains in Bitcoin prices, excitement is brewing about what might happen in the coming weeks.
Macroeconomic stimuli may not provide the answer immediately, as October begins with a quiet phase for macro data in the United States, with the government avoiding a last-minute shutdown.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fundamentals have yet to reflect the rise in the spot price, with mining difficulty due to actually falling at the next automated adjustment on October 2.
Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more in our weekly summary of upcoming BTC price catalysts.
Bitcoin bulls acknowledge the risks of a Bitcoin price reversal
Leading up to the weekly close on October 1, Bitcoin had already passed the end of the September monthly candle – with little overall volatility.
That all changed at the end of the week, with a sudden growth spurt that brought Bitcoin’s price action down to just under $28,000. In the hours that followed, new local highs of $28,451 appeared on Bitstamp.
Since the beginning of October 1, the largest cryptocurrency has risen more than 5%, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView Confirms.
The move provided Bitcoin’s highest weekly close since mid-August, negating the weaker performance seen since then.
“Bitcoin is at $28,000,” said Michael van de Poppe, CEO and founder of MNTrading. Tell X subscribers per day.
“The price may pull back completely, but the trend is clearly up. Every Bitcoin consolidation will be a period where altcoins start to follow Bitcoin’s path. This quarter will be interesting!”
Likewise, popular trader Skew flagged the potential for a pullback, using exchange order book trends as a guide.
“The order book is very broad here in terms of available liquidity/convenience.” to explain Per day.
“A greater price reaction is coming from this IMO, which leads to more liquidity of demand on spot order books; meaning there is more volume for spot buyers to clear between $28K and $29K (market structure shift).”
He added that the drive to determine which direction the market is headed now falls on the shoulders of spot traders.
$ Bitcoin Total CVD and delta
Mostly we are just seeing selling pressure at the moment
Prices decline as Perp CVD declines and Perp sell delta rebounds
The next step that decides the fate of this entire move is immediate pic.twitter.com/7mAB2XMvUh
– Δ skew (@52kskew) October 2, 2023
Keith Allan, co-founder of Resource Watch Indicators, to publish A screenshot of the Binance order book, showing $28,000 as the main hurdle to overcome immediately after the move.
Bitcoin, it is He addedIt was now facing resistance in the form of the 200-week moving average, at the time of writing at around $27,970.
“I expect another wave of resistance this month, but since I’m still in ‘buy the dip, sell the rip’ mode, I’ll stick to these rules, make quick money and look for the next setup,” part of the accompanying caption read.
“Volatility is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.”
Bitcoin’s strong start to October puts it at odds with last year’s scenes.
As Cointelegraph reported, the 0.7% decline heralds the beginning of what is statistically the strongest month for gains in Bitcoin prices.
A surprising side month followed, culminating in the FTX crash that sent cryptocurrency markets plunging to two-year lows later in the fourth quarter.
This time – so far – looks different, and more like the classic “Uptober” of years past. According to data from monitoring resources Queen GlassBTC/USD has not finished October lower than it started it since 2018.
While discussing the topic, popular market commentators were happy to channel the spirit of 2021 – a year in which Q4 saw not a multi-year low, but a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
Happy Uptober to those who celebrate.
Remember 2021? pic.twitter.com/qgHy1ThGOf
– Wolf of All Streets (scottmelker) October 2, 2023
Popular trader Gilly went further, suggesting that Bitcoin was in the midst of a more significant trend change.
“Bitcoin has broken its mid-term downtrend, retested it, and is now starting the next leg higher.” Announce Along with an illustrative diagram.
“A strong weekly close is behind us, most charts look like we will go higher this week. Welcome to Uptober.
Previously, Jelle, like Van de Poppe, argued that this month could see BTC/USD Prime exceeds $30,000 For the first time since June.
“Eight out of the last 10 days of October were positive for Bitcoin,” said popular analytics account Stack Hodler. books in part of his own analysis on October 1, noting that on average, the return during that period was 22%.
Difficulty due to breaking from a standard level
In a shift from what has become the norm in recent months, Bitcoin network fundamentals do not mimic the bullish sentiment in spot markets.
Latest estimates from data source BTC.com Conversely, difficulty is set to decrease by 0.7% at the next auto-adjustment on October 2.
Currently, at all-time highs, difficulty recently rose by approximately 6% at a time when Bitcoin’s price performance is decidedly uncertain.
Competition among miners remains fierce, Cointelegraph reported in September, and hashrate spikes underscore the ever-changing environment as miners make long-term commitments to the network in the name of profitability.
With the hash rate – the estimated processing power deployed on the network – also higher than ever, the classic mantra “price follows hash rate” is back in play.
Not everyone adheres to this statement, with some of the most respected names in Bitcoin arguing that the opposite is true – that the hash rate actually follows the price.
Among them is Jameson Loeb, co-founder and CTO of bitcoin storage company Casa.
Hashrate follows the price. Some people believe that the price follows the hash rate, perhaps because the hash rate tracks not only the spot price, but also some speculative future prices. Miners are speculators too!
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) June 23, 2018
in Blog post Released over the weekend, Loeb revealed the results of its efforts to predict hash rate more accurately.
“By mixing several hash rate estimates and weighting them based on the most recent estimates with a variety of time frames for later data, we were able to fairly easily improve the block 1100 estimate, reduce the average error rate by 13%, and reduce the standard deviation by 14%,” Summarize.
Depends on Resources used,Hash rate values can vary widely, with only the general trend clearly visible to observers.
Fed spokesmen top macro notes
While Bitcoin excitement is building in the first week of October, the same cannot be said for US macroeconomic data, which is set to be a quieter start to the month.
Arguably the week’s major potential event has already happened, as lawmakers avoid a last-minute government shutdown.
Ukrainian aid was the sticking point, which was removed in order to reach an agreement between the two sides.
The US Congress has just passed a plan to avoid a US government shutdown.
This will likely calm the stock market and give us some green candles next week! It is a short-term emergency extension of 45 days.
– Seth (@seth_fin) October 1, 2023
Turning to the month’s forecasts, the source of financial commentary, Al Qubaisi’s message focused on comments coming from officials at the Federal Reserve.
Ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to decide on interest rate policy on November 1, markets will continue to monitor official language for clues.
“The next Fed meeting will be held in exactly one month. With 13 Fed speakers this week, we expect more volatility.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled in exactly one month.
With 13 Fed speakers this week, expect more volatility.
We will publish our trades for this week soon.
In 2022, our call rate reached 86%.
Subscribe to access our analysis and see what we’re trading:https://t.co/SJRZ4FrfLE
– Al Qubaisi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 1, 2023
Latest data from CME Group Feedwatch tool Shows mixed feelings about what the FOMC will decide. The market is currently placing the odds of interest rates remaining at current levels at 62%.
The analysis turns positive on the liquidity of the dollar
Meanwhile, considering the macro phenomenon associated with it, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro pointed out the liquidity trends in the US and their impact on Bitcoin price movement in the future.
Related: Will Bitcoin “Uptober” Bring Gains for MKR, AAVE, RUNE, and INJ?
The relationship between global liquidity and the performance of risk assets is well documented – especially in light of the volatility occurring since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
Late last week, Tedtalksmacro showed a discrepancy between net USD and BTC/USD liquidity.
– tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023
In the accompanying analysis, he said that measuring delta over “explicit liquidity” gives a better view. Regarding Bitcoin’s future outlook, he was complimentary.
“More importantly, the path of least resistance is now sideways/upwards from here in the coming years…he wrote.
Measuring liquidity directly is not very useful for making investment decisions and tends to lag, however, measuring the delta or change week after week, month after month, is more powerful.
Since there is often progress on the liquidity side, at least when compared to the BTC price… pic.twitter.com/1DvE7xInxC
– tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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