Will Bitcoin “Uptober” bring gains for MKR, AAVE, RUNE and INJ? ScrgruppEn

After rising by about 80% in the first two quarters of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by about 11% in the third quarter ending in September. However, there is an upside for the bulls as they managed a positive monthly close in September, the first since 2016.

Buyers will try to build on this momentum in October, which has a bullish track record. According to CoinGlass data, only 2014 and 2018 have produced negative monthly returns since 2013 in October. There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself but the data can be used as a good starting point for formulating strategies by traders.

Daily view of crypto market data. source: Coin360

Recent strength in Bitcoin has also boosted interest in altcoins. Some selected altcoins are trying to break through their general resistance levels, signaling the beginning of a strong recovery. Bullish momentum could increase further if Bitcoin extends its rally to $28,000.

Not all altcoins are expected to go to the upside. Cryptocurrencies that show strength are the ones that could lead to a higher recovery. Let’s examine the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could outperform in the near term.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading above the moving averages since September 28, which is a positive sign. This indicates that the advantage is gradually tilting in favor of buyers.

BTC/USDT daily chart. source: TradingView

The bears are trying to stop the rally near the $27,500 area, but the bulls have not given up much. This indicates that every slight decline is bought. This increases the chances of a breakout above the $27,500 level. BTC/USDT could then retest the crucial overhead resistance at $28,143. This level may attract strong selling by bears again.

If the price falls sharply from $28,143, the pair may retest the 20-day EMA ($26,630). A strong bounce from this level could push the price above $28,143. The pair could then rise to $30,000.

This bullish outlook will be invalidated in the near term if the price declines and falls below the strong support level at $26,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is receiving support at the 20 EMA. This indicates that the bulls are trying to take charge. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily and will try to stop the recovery in the area between $27,300 and $27,500. Sellers will then have to cut the price below the 20-EMA to take control.

Conversely, if the bulls break the overhead resistance at $27,500, it would pave the way for a potential rise to $28,143. This level may witness a difficult battle between buyers and sellers.

Maker price analysis

Maker (MKR) price broke and closed above $1,370 on September 26, signaling the start of a new uptrend. When an asset is in an uptrend, traders tend to buy on dips.

MKR/USDT daily chart. source: TradingView

The bears tried to stop the upward move at $1,600, but the bulls bought the dip at $1,432. This indicates that sentiment remains positive and lower levels are being bought. If the bulls push the price above $1,600, the MKR/USDT pair could rise to $1,760 and then quickly push to $1,909.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls sharply and slips below $1,432, it could make way for a retest of the breakout level at $1,370. The bears will have to cut the price below this support to indicate that the uptrend may be over.

4-hour chart MKR/USDT. Source: Trading View

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are strongly protecting the general resistance at $1,600. If the bulls want to maintain their chances of continuing the uptrend, they will have to buy dips to the 20 EMA.

If the price bounces from the 20 EMA, buyers will once again try to overcome the obstacle at $1,600 and start the next phase of the uptrend. Alternatively, a breakdown to $1,432 and then to the 50 SMA may begin if the pair falls below the 20 EMA.

AVI price analysis

Aave (AAVE) is attempting to break above the long-term downtrend line, indicating a potential trend change. The recovery from the 20-day EMA ($62.42) on September 28 indicates a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

AAVE/USDT daily chart. source: TradingView

The bears will try to stop the recovery at the downtrend line, but if the bulls do not allow the price to fall back below the 20-day EMA, it will increase the probability of a breakout above it. The AAVE/USDT pair could then start an upward move towards the $88 level.

The 20-day EMA is an important support to watch on the downside. If it breaks this level, it will indicate that bears are still active at higher levels. This could take the price down to the 50-day simple moving average ($58.82).

AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View

A bullish 20-EMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near overbought territory indicate that the bulls are in control. The rally may face selling at the downtrend line but the bulls will try to stop the decline at the 20 EMA.

A strong bounce from the 20 EMA will open the doors to a potential rally above the downtrend line. The pair may rise first to $75 and then to $80. The bearish move would have to sink and keep the price below the 20 EMA to break the rhythm.

Related: Cryptocurrency synthetic assets explained

Thorshin price analysis

THORChain (RUNE) reached the overall resistance at $2 for the third time over the past few days. Frequent retesting of the resistance level tends to weaken it.

RUNE/USDT daily chart. Source: Trading View

If the bulls do not give up much of the current level, this will improve the odds of a rally above $2. If that happens, RUNE/USDT could rise first to $2.28 and later to $2.78.

This positive outlook will be invalidated in the near term if the price declines and falls below the moving averages. Such a move would signal that the bulls have given up and the pair could then fall to $1.37.

RUNE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are selling near the upper resistance at $2, but a positive sign is that the bulls did not let the price slip and stay below the 20 EMA. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.

If the bulls push the price above $2 and hold it, it will signal the beginning of a new uptrend. The pair may then rise towards $2.35. Conversely, if the price declines and breaks below the 20 EMA, it will signal the beginning of a deeper correction to the 50 SMA.

Injection price analysis

Injective (INJ) has been oscillating within a wide range between $5.40 and $10 over the past few days. Price movement within a range can be random and volatile, but when the boundaries are divergent, trading opportunities may arise.

INJ/USDT daily chart. source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. INJ/USDT could first rise to $8.28 where the bears may face strong resistance. If the bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could gain momentum and rise towards $10.

If the bears want to prevent an uptrend, they will have to defend the overhead resistance and quickly pull the price below the moving averages. The pair could then retest the immediate support at $6.36.

INJ/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View

Both moving averages on the 4-hour chart are sloping and the RSI is in the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage. The rise could reach $8.28, which could be a strong hurdle.

On the downside, the first support is located at the 20 EMA. A bounce off this level will indicate that the uptrend is still in place. Conversely, a break below the 20 EMA will signal that the bulls are taking profits. This may lead to the price falling to the 50 simple moving average.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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